Remember how Miami used to collapse against FSU? That script’s flipped

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Two years in a row, the Canes stormed back to beat their archrivals

 

After years of Florida State fans being able to brag about a winning streak over Miami, the tables have turned. Miami came back to beat FSU, 28-27, making it two years in a row for the Canes.

And this isn’t your usual rivalry back-and-forth. Mark Richt’s squad has now pulled off two big comebacks against a team it used to regularly fall apart against.

But let’s back up. For a long time, the Hurricanes had FSU collapse issues.

FSU ripped off a seven-game winning streak in the series from 2010 to 2016. Miami stuck to a familiar pattern those years. The Canes would play somewhere between “fine” and “really well” before running up against the Noles, and then they’d totally tank afterward.

Miami before and after losing to FSU: 2010-2016

Year Pre-FSU FSU and post-FSU Finished
2010 3-1 4-5 7-6
2011 5-4 1-2 6-6
2012 4-3 3-2 7-5
2013 7-0 2-4 9-4
2014 6-3 0-4 6-7
2015 3-1 5-4 8-5
2016 4-0 5-4 9-4
Total 0.727 0.444 0.584

All of those Miami-FSU games came after the Canes had run up some wins against bad non-conference opponents. In some of the years, Miami hadn’t been any great shakes before falling to the Noles. But the general trend was undeniably toward post-FSU collapses that led Miami to disappointing year after disappointing year.

In 2017, Miami flipped the script.

The Canes snapped their FSU losing streak and moved to 4-0 with a dramatic win in Tallahassee. And the win over the Noles was about as far from a collapse as could be, with the Canes essentially pulling off two comebacks in one game. The win probability with just a few seconds to go, per ESPN’s calculations at the time:

The Canes won their next six, blowing out rival Notre Dame and securing the ACC Coastal, while FSU kept slumping to its worst season in decades.

“The good news is, we got the victory last year and didn’t have the meltdown,” Mark Richt told SB Nation’s Richard Johnson.

And 2018’s Miami comeback was even bigger.

ESPN:

From here, it wouldn’t be a surprise if FSU missed a bowl game entirely. It also wouldn’t be any surprise if Miami were to win its division again and make another New Year’s Six game.

Rivalry momentum swings at a moment’s notice, but for now, its entirely in Miami’s corner.

 

by sbnation.com